Indian markets likely to open flat as US tariffs bite; experts see resilience
Derivatives data suggests a bullish undertone, while low India VIX indicates expectations of consolidation over sharp downside risks.
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Indian markets are expected to open on a flattish note on Friday. According to analysts, the eventful week for the market may see resilience despite US tariff pressures. As the government works on incentive measures for exporters, experts believe that value buying will emerge.
Dr. Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist at Infomerics Ratings, stated that US President Donald Trump has imposed additional tariffs on India, amounting to 25%, bringing the total tariff level to 50%. This will severely impact sectors such as the pharmaceutical industry, textiles, electronics, and gems and jewellery. So, this is certainly a reason for us in India to be concerned, but no reason for us to be alarmed, he said. “It is essential to remember that India, unlike China, is largely a domestically driven economy…We have weathered many storms in the past, like the global financial crisis of October 2008 or even the COVID-19 pandemic. So we are confident this will cause some hits but will be able to weather this shock confidently,” he added.
Trideep Bhattacharya, President and CIO, Equities Edelweiss MF, on the impact of Tariffs on the markets, said: “We estimate the overall cumulative impact of tariffs at 0.5–0.7% of India’s GDP, with the sharpest effects likely in Gems & Jewellery, Textiles, and Mobile Phones. This is the economic price India may have to pay to safeguard its domestic agricultural economy, as part of “welfare motive” in our opinion. The broader consequence will be a mix of higher goods inflation, tighter producer margins, and a drag on global trade — a combination that could weigh on valuation multiples globally over time.
Meanwhile, gift Nifty is ruling at 24,645 (730 IST) against Nifty futures close of 24,673, signalling a flattish opening.
Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities, said:The derivatives setup supports the technical bounce, with early signs of bullish sentiment re-emerging.
Derivatives setup
For the first time in over a month, put writers have marginally outpaced call writers, indicating a subtle but meaningful sentiment shift, he said. The 25,000 strike has witnessed heavy call writing, with open interest rising to 53.04 lakh contracts, establishing it as a major resistance zone. Conversely, the 24,500 strike holds the highest put open interest at 45.96 lakh contracts, reinforcing it as immediate support. “Notably, put writers have regained confidence by re-establishing positions closer to the current market price, while call writers have begun covering their positions. This positioning hints at growing optimism among market participants,” he said, adding that the Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has surged from 0.60 to 1.02, reflecting strengthening bullish sentiment and a clear shift in favour of put sellers.
VIX movement
India VIX edged lower by 2.28%, closing at 11.68. “Despite global tariff-related developments, implied volatility remains subdued and anchored near neutral territory. The persistent low VIX suggests the broader market is expecting consolidation rather than sharp downside risks, indicating that caution exists without panic,” he further said.
Meanwhile, global stocks are mixed in early trade in the Asia-Pacific region, with Japan and Taiwan leading the gains, while Korea, China, and Australian stocks are in the red.
Published on August 8, 2025